Flexible north stars
#258 - Jul.2025
Most strategies fail because they ignore balancing short and long-term thinking.
They either over-index on quick wins or create detailed plans for an uncertain future.
It's planning paradox: should you start from the vision and work backwards or start creating certainty to discover a vision?
I think we need both: iterating fast through experimentation and retrofitting a strategy towards a bold vision.
Today we are living in a highly uncertain environment. Planning for the long-term is becoming nearly impossible. We need to build certainty through quick validations while keeping a flexible north star.
The solution isn't choosing one approach over the other but designing a strategy that operates on multiple time horizons.
Here's a simple framework to do this:
- Run experiments (1-4 weeks): Test your assumptions fast and cheap. Adapt as you learn from real customer behavior.
- Find & validate opportunities (1-3 months): Focus on opportunities that maximize both customer value and business outcomes.
- Refine product strategy (1-2 years): Set clear focus by defining what problems you're solving. This clarity will help you guide your execution.
- Refine business strategy (2-5 years): Design and refine a business model that creates the conditions for long-term success.
It works both ways.
Long-term vision guides execution, while experimentation builds evidence to refine strategy.
¡Saludos!
